Alternative Insight

Mutual Destruction
The United States, Iran and Israel - an Unholy Trinity of Desperation

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Contrary to conventional thinking, the United States, Iran and Israel have much in common. Each of these nations is:

• isolating itself from the world community,
• losing friends and making enemies,
• behaving in belligerent fashions,
• remaining irresolute in its demands of other nations, and
• propelling one another towards war.

The three countries are forming an unholy trinity of inescapable desperation, leading to mutual destruction.

The Inescapable Desperations

United States
Since 1954, the United States has actively engaged Iran. The CIA conspired to bring the downfall of Iranian Prime Minister Mossadegh after he threatened to nationalize the oil industry and subsequently enabled the fervent anti-Communist Shah Pahlevi to gain power. Embarrassed by seizure of its embassy in 1980, U.S. administrations have not been able to adjust to the Islamic Republic of Iran. U.S. foreign policies towards Iran have had a single trajectory; alienating the Islamic state and maintaining it as an enemy. The U.S. government:

• In 1980, allowed the deposed Shah to enter the U.S. for medical treatment, despite Iranian protests. This event provoked extremists in Iran to seize the American embassy and hold embassy officials captive.
• During the 1980's, provided arms and support to Iraq in the eight-year war between the two nations.
• In 1987, moved warships into the Straits of Hormuz to protect Persian Gulf shipping, interfered with Iranian shipping, and caused losses to Iran's small navy.
• On July 3, 1988, shot down an Iranian civilian airliner in Iran's territorial waters and killed all 290 civilian passengers.
• Since 1980, has proposed and implemented a variety of sanctions against Iran.
• In February 2006, according to The UK Telegraph, prepared "last resort" plans for "devastating bombing raids backed by submarine-launched ballistic missile attacks against Iran's nuclear sites."
• In 2007, raided Iran's Consulate General office in Northern Iraq and detained two Iranian diplomats for 305 days.
• In 2008, reinforced ongoing presence of U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf close to Iranian borders.
• In August 2008, warned of more sanctions against Iran due to Iran's reluctance to halt its atomic activities.

The United States continually characterizes the Islamic Republic as a threat to world peace. Although never giving proof, several Bush officials and military leaders have accused Iran of supplying arms to Iraqi insurgents. Secretary of Defense Gates has exaggerated Iran's participation in more emotional terms. Robert Gates remarked at a press conference. "What the Iranians are doing is killing American servicemen and women inside Iraq.'

The United States, together with Israel, continually accuses Iran of pretending to pursue atomic energy while covertly developing nuclear weapons. These statements contradict a U.S. intelligence findings that Iran ceased its nuclear weapons developments in 2003.

Do these rash attacks on the Islamic Republic have any effect? Apparently not on Iran, but they have moved the U.S. population. A recent poll demonstrates the effectiveness of United States presentation of Iran as a threat to world peace.

WASHINGTON - Iran has replaced Iraq as the country Americans consider to be their greatest enemy, according to a Gallup Poll. Canada and Great Britain were ranked as America's best friends. Thirty-one percent of Americans gave the nod to Iran as the worst enemy in polling of 1,002 adults between Feb. 6-9. This represented an increase from 14 percent last year, and appeared to reflect growing American concern over the potential for the Islamic republic to acquire nuclear weapons.
GEORGE GEDDA, Associated Press Writer, Feb 24, 2006

U.S. descriptions of Iran sound ominously similar to the descriptions of Saddam Hussein's Iraq before the U.S. invaded the Fertile Crescent.

Iran
The Islamic Republic has been aggressively vocal in condemning the United States but less aggressive in physical attacks against its antagonist. Iranian attacks on American facilities and personnel have been minimal, not entirely verified and often the result of attacks against it:

• In 1980, Iranian extremists (not the government) seized the American embassy in Teheran and kept the embassy employees captive after the Carter administration allowed the Shah to enter the United States.
• In the 1983 bombing of the Beirut marine barracks, in which 241 U.S. military personnel were killed, and which occurred after U.S. shelling of communities in the Lebanon Shouf mountains, rumors had Iran assisting incipient Lebanese Hezbollah sympathizers in the barracks attack.
• In the June 1996 bombing of U.S. military barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, which claimed the lives of 19 U.S. servicemen, although no conclusive proof was established, investigators accused Iran of involvement.
• In 1987, during the Iranian/Iraqi war, and after U.S. warships entered the Persian Gulf, Iran harassed American vessels with periodic stop-and-search operations, mined channels, performed hit-and-run attacks by small patrol boats. Iranian forces shelled the reflagged tanker Sea Isle City, and the U.S. aggressively retaliated by destroying Iranian oil platforms.
• In 2006-2007, the U.S. accused Iran of harassing U.S. naval vessels in the Persian Gulf.

There is no limit to combative words by Iranian officials, especially lately. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blamed the United States and Israel for the February 2006 terrorist attack that destroyed Samarra's Askariya mosque.

And of course, there is Iran's attempt to develop nuclear energy , which it claims has no military intention, but has alarmed the Western world.

Iran's attitude towards Israel is more strongly militant than its attitude towards the United States. Iran provides military assistance to Hezbollah, the Lebanese force that aggressively contests Israel, and also assists the Palestinians in their struggle against Israeli occupation.

In 2006, an Iranian adviser said that Iran would strike Israel in response to U.S. attack:

If the United States launches an attack on Iran, the Islamic republic will retaliate with a military strike on Israel's main nuclear facility, an advisor to Iran's Revolutionary Guard said. The advisor, Dr. Abasi, said Tehran would respond to an American attack with strikes on the Dimona nuclear reactor and other strategic Israeli sites such as the port city of Haifa and the Zakhariya area.
Yossi Melman, Haaretz , Feb. 26, 20006

In 2008, Iran test-fired a missile equipped with a one-ton conventional warhead, and claimed the missile is capable of hitting targets within a 2,000-kilometer range. Air Force chief, Brigadier General Ahmad Miqani added to Iran's attempt to convince the world of its military prowess by announcing that some of his 300 fighter planes, all of old vintage, have been updated to fly distances of 3,000 kilometers, round trip Israel without refueling. Revolutionary Guard Commander Major General Mohammad-Ali Jafari followed these unverified claims with a dubious prediction that "Iran does not anticipate an Israeli strike as Israel is fully aware of its vulnerability to Iranian missiles.:

Iran night not have the strong military it claims to have, but its leaders have a strong rhetoric. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejed has called for Israel to be "wiped off the map," and insisted that the major problem in the Islamic world is "the presence of the Zionist occupation in the heart of the Islamic region." Nevertheless, Mahmoud Ahmadinejed's words are not policy. The Iranian president does not dictate Iran's foreign policy or control Iran's military.The Supreme Leader, a religious figure selected by an Assembly of Experts, controls Iran's armed forces and its judiciary. The Supreme Leader has been more conciliatory. Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei spoke more moderately to other government officials on November 4, 2005:

We believe, according to our Islamic principles, that neither throwing the Jews into the sea nor putting the Palestinian land on fire is logical and reasonable. Our position is that the Palestinian people should regain their rights. Palestine belongs to Palestinians, and the fate of Palestine should also be determined by the Palestinian people.

Israel
With the demise of Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Israel considers Iran as its principal enemy. Iran supports Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestine Hamas, two groups dedicated to the destruction of Israel. If Israel concludes that war would reduce Iran to an impotent force, Israel would undoubtedly attack Iran. Meanwhile, Israel whips up world opinion against Tehran; joining the United States in making calculated threats and proposing direct military action against Iran. The rumors fly and one in late 2005 from the London Sunday Times was alarming:

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has ordered the IDF to prepare to attack Iran's nuclear facilities at the end of March 2006: London Sunday Times correspondent Uzi Mahnaimi

This initial threat finally received legs from Pentagon officials in June, 2008 whrn they related that Israel had conducted maneuvers over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece as a preparation for a war with Iran. According to the Israeli daily Ma'ariv, Aug. 30, 2008, "Jerusalem has put preparations for a separate, independent military strike by Israel in high gear."

The three belligerent nations have presented their non-compromising arguments. Their next step is military confrontation.

The Shaping Battlefronts
Israel suspects that sometime, somewhere and somehow, Iran will attack. Israel is at peak military strength. Iran can only get stronger, which includes possible possession of the nuclear bomb. Iran's developments of nuclear energy leading to a nuclear bomb gives Israel a rational for an attack,

The United States has no clear issue with Iran that deserves to be resolved by war, including preventing Iran's development of a nuclear bomb. U.S. intelligence agencies predict that Iran is "about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon," and its delivery weapons are many years away. During that interval, the U.S. anticipates democracy will arrive at Iran's door and be embraced by the Iranian people.

The U.S. is more vulnerable than Israel to Iranian attacks. The Iranians can attack the U.S. fleet in the Persian Gulf and U.S. troops in Iraq and Kuwait. Despite this vulnerability, media reports suggest that U.S. strategists are planning for potential military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iran is militarily hapless - no warships, mostly antiquated air force, dubious air defenses and some missile systems which can cause limited damage. Iran can only fight a defensive war, but it is not powerless. Teheran has some major trump cards.

• Iran has sufficient alliances with Iraq militias to harass U.S. troops in Iraq. Hamid al-Bayati, Iraq's ambassador to the Unite Nations, has said. "If Iran wanted, it could make Iraq a hell for the United States,"
• Iran has paramilitary units that could join with Lebanon's Hezbollah and Palestinian militants and attack Israel.
• Iran has the capability to temporarily interrupt oil flow by reducing its oil exports, closing the straits of Hormuz to oil shipments from the Persian Gulf, soliciting assistance in destroying oil facilities in Iraq, especially at the port of Basra, and using paramilitary forces to destroy other Middle East oil facilities.
• Paramilitary units and missiles could damage U.S. military facilities in Kuwait .
• Other militant groups in the Moslem world could react aggressively in sympathy with Iran. The Middle East and possibly other regions of the world could be in turmoil.
• Other third world nations that have gained economic power, such as Venezuela, also support Iran and might join in economic reprisals against the United States and Israel.

The rhetoric, lack of diplomacy and preparation for aggressive actions lead to a world being shaped by aggression. The actions lead to mutual destruction.

Mutual Destruction
The United States and Israel cannot invade Iran and destroy its government. They can only bomb nuclear and military facilities. In doing this, the allied nations must be careful they don't interrupt Iran's oil producing capacity or harm its civilian population. Iran and its vast allies throughout the Moslem world can inflict harm to a multitude of U.S. and Israeli installations and to Israel's population. Iran and its allies don't have to inflict damage in a short time; they can do it forever. The U.S. and Israel are opening themselves to an era of constant havoc and economic warfare. Iran will also suffer but much less, at least until the ultimate weapons are used.

The three nations are determined to destroy one another and eventually themselves.

The Unholy Trinity of Desperation
The United States, Iran and Israel are leading the world to a cataclysm. Why the world acts quietly and permits this happening and why the United States make itself a partner in the travesty are mysteries

Washington has no issue with Tehran that cannot be negotiated. What danger is Iran to an America that behaves responsibly, which means not interfering in the affairs of nations in the Middle East. Iran has no problem with Japan or China or Sweden. Why must Iran have a problem with the U.S.? The U.S. might not prefer the Islamic government, but why is that a problem for the United States? After all, one of the best friends of the U.S. is Saudi Arabia, a fundamentalist Islamic nation.

Israel has issues with Iran, but Iran's attitude is not different from most nations that demand Israel modify its aggressive stance and return to being the nation permitted by the 1947 UN Resolution that created it.

Let's repeat the words of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei.

We believe, according to our Islamic principles, that neither throwing the Jews into the sea nor putting the Palestinian land on fire is logical and reasonable. Our position is that the Palestinian people should regain their rights. Palestine belongs to Palestinians, and the fate of Palestine should also be determined by the Palestinian people.

Israel claimed it was threatened by Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Saddam Hussein has been deposed and Israel is more threatened by the combination of the new Iraq and the old Iran. Israel is forever threatened because Israel appears to its neighbors as a virulent nationalist, militarist and chauvinist nation that uses security to occupy lands, replace indigenous people, oppress Palestinians and constantly threaten others. Israel's problems seem to have no end and pose the argument that the problems can only be resolved by endless wars, which means until either Israel or the Middle East disappears.

Iran is a theocratic and intolerant state that contrasts with the progress of mankind. Retrograde domestic policies isolate Iran from the world community and push it to ally with radical Hezbollah and Hamas, who also contest nations that Iran feels infringes upon Islam and its own peace. However, the Islamic Republic problems are principally internal and only accidentally external. Iran directly supports those it considers being oppressed by Israel and is definitely opposed to the Israeli state. Iran has no special reason to harm the United States and no capability to do harm without itself being demolished. The Islamic state has no territorial ambitions and can't spread its religious doctrines because of the limitations of Sh'ia Islam in the Moslem world. Actually, Iran has often allied itself with U.S. interests by vigorously opposing the enemies of the United States.

• Iran was a prominent enemy of Saddam Hussein's Iraq,
• Iran opposed Afghanistan's Taliban after the the Taliban murdered 10 Iranian diplomats in August 1998.
• Iran always opposed Soviet Union's communism.
• Iran detained and extradited 500 suspected Al-Qaeda fugitives who crossed onto its soil.
• Iran has been considered the most cooperative nation in the rehabilitation of Afghanistan.
• Notably, unlike America's friend Pakistan that houses Al Qaeda operatives and Taliban militias on its border, no Al Qaeda or Taliban actions have proceeded from Iranian territory that borders Afghanistan.

Decades of antagonism between the United States and The Islamic Republic have only reinforced the antagonisms and have propelled the two nations to an eventual collision.

All three nations, United States, Iran and Israel seem oblivious that the effects of their aggressive actions will lead to mutual destruction. America must decide if it wants to be tied to Israel's endless policies of confrontation that will lead all to an abyss. Israel must decide when its confrontations end before its luck runs out. Iran must decide when it changes its fundamentalist appearance so that it receives support from the world community. The United Nations must decide when it finally steps in and proves its worth by halting war and enforcing peace and reconciliation.

alternativeinsight
March, 2006
updated September, 2008

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