Alternative Insight

CHAOS
The Coming State of America


Wikipedia definition:
Chaos theory is the branch of mathematics that deals with complex systems whose behavior is highly sensitive to slight changes in conditions, so that small alterations can give rise to strikingly great consequences.

No need to know mathematics in order to realize that the United States is in a fragile condition and added instability can cause a complete rupture of its socio-economic system. .

The domestic economic system is subjected to cycles of recession, in which credit shrinkage unleashes huge shortfalls of demand, resulting in production declines, financial failures, and elevated unemployment.
Foreign affairs, governed by a desire to protect markets, maintain energy sources, and maintain world hegemony has led to endless wars, all of which have been counterproductive and caused cataclysms to international arrangements.
A shaky but stable political system has been damaged by public resentment to the two U.S. political Parties
Legislative governance is headed toward the contentious and chaotic, due to the election of a maverick, contradictory and apolitical person to the office of the Presidency.

Total chaos can be on the way; President-elect Donald Trump's forecasted administration shows fallacies in its arguments and a tendency to cause more than "slight changes in conditions, so that small alterations can give rise to strikingly great consequences." Whereas democrat administrations followed a pattern of using government spending to fix the economy and legislated regulations to dampen excessive perturbations and Republican administrations adhered to polices that favored the more wealthy and maintained the status quo, President-elect Trump's views, which are inconsistent and contradictory, are destined to manufacture policies that depart from a normal progression and permit incongruous situations to confuse political action.
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The domestic system
Similar to the already tried 2009 American Recovery and Renewal Act (Obama stimulus), President-elect Trump's proposal to expand spending on infrastructure will have short term employment and GDP gains, but will not create permanent industries.

Nor is the spending assured. The President-elect's plan does not directly fund new infrastructure projects. It provides tax breaks to private-sector investors who back profitable construction projects. How can infrastructure projects be profitable? Maybe by charging tolls, or rentals, or who knows what, and why would any profiteer take the risk? Besides, the U.S. most needs repair of existing infrastructure and not new enterprises for replacement of existing architecture. For decades, the governments - federal, state and local - have built excellent infrastructure, doing what private industry has refused or been able to do. What is different today?

If infrastructure projects are financed conventionally, then the Trump administration will need either higher taxes or increased debt to finance the spending, which will clash with Republican appropriations committees and contradict his campaign statement, "When I say that, we owe, this is what you're talking about, we owe $19 trillion as a country. And we're gonna knock it down and we're gonna bring it down big league and quickly, we're gonna bring jobs back, we're gonna bring business back, we're gonna stop our deficits, we're gonna stop our deficits, we're gonna do it very quickly."

Before initiating policies, which previously have sent the nation into financial shocks, President-elect Donald Trump should ask himself:
(1) Does not an erratic and unstable system need regulation for stability?
(2) Does cutting taxes expand the money supply and prevent redistribution of the wealth? If negative for the former and positive for the latter, how can tax cuts contribute substantially to economic growth?
(3) If corporations, which have had record after tax profits -- after tax profits have increased from $600 billion in 2002 to $1.7 trillion in 2015 -- and are not spending, why would decreasing their taxes motivate them to invest?

Foreign affairs
Trump has implied that he intends to apply his business principles of artful dealing and clever negotiations to foreign policy, both of which differ from signing treaties and diplomatic agreements Dealing involves obtaining hidden advantage from another contestant; treaties involve open expressions between two or more contestants; negotiations leave the negotiators feel cheated, diplomacy soothes all minds. The American president elect's approach to foreign affairs is destined to confuse his State Department and bewilder other nations.

Two of President-elect Trump's significant foreign policy proposals are to smooth relations with Russia and remove the U.S. military from foreign engagements. Changing U.S. foreign policy to meet President elect Trump's objectives are admirable and may enable a more stable and peaceful world -- certainly the present policies have not been effective - but can the objective be accomplished without internal conflicts?

Softening relations with Russia gets roughed up if Russia continues support of Iran and will be severely challenged by Republican and Democrat war hawks. Removing the U.S. military from foreign engagements contradicts the concept of "making America great again," without military engagement can the U.S. maintain its dominating power. Irrespective of the worth of the forecasted policies, expect violent arguments against them with a divided government and divided military.

Political system
Despite the shaky political system, which has been scraped by public resentment, the two established U.S. political Parties have survived, remain functioning, and with little change. Although Republican Party leaders were rejected in the primary battle, the Party apparatus remains the same. The Democratic Party has made some concessions to the Bernie Sanders camp but its hierarchy still includes established politicos.

Debbie Wasserman Shultz's successful return to office in Florida's 23rd Congressional district characterizes the barren and lethargic manner of her Democratic Party. Hillary Clinton's disastrous loss can be attributed to many factors, but one of the major factors was the revelation that then Congresswoman Shultz, as chairperson of the Democratic National Committee, conspired to sabotage the campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders, a maneuver that drove many Sanders followers to either not vote for Clinton or vote for Trump. Congresswoman Shultz's ignorance also undermined trust in the Democratic Party. Nevertheless, the Democratic Party nominated her again, and Ms. Schultz won the congressional seat. Distressing!

The two political Parties have discords but manage to come together before everything comes apart. Entering the government is a non-establishment president, not solidly aligned with either major Party, whose erratic nature will not find common ground from either Republicans or Democrats, whose policies will be his own and not Party directed. The fragile balance of powers that barely enables the U.S. government to survive will be severely tested. Dissonance that cannot be converted to resonance, discord that cannot be converted to accord, enemies that cannot be converted to friends and animosities that cannot be converted to goodwill is the difference between the Abraham Lincoln administration and what awaits the American public in the Donald Trump administration. Abraham Lincoln engineered stability from chaos; Dinald Trump might turn stability into chaos, with some states petitioning to succeed from the Union.

Legislative governance
Regard the setup - two established political Parties contending with one another in legislative affairs and a non-establishment president contending with each of them. Consider a non-compromising Executive and a bureaucratic Legislative trying to coordinate activities. The major legislative actors will be out of synchronism and with each day the legislative schedule will grow more undecided.

If Trump had the qualities and recognition of either Theodore or Franklin Roosevelt, he might be able to overcome a discontinuity between the executive office and congress, but that resemblance is not apparent. More likely is that Trump will relate to others as did the aloof President Herbert Hoover, and the result of the 2017 relation will be the same as that in 1929.

Personal
If President-elect Trump equates his business executive success as a guide to his eventual federal executive success, the nation is faced with inevitable calamities.

  • Businessman Trump started his career with a fortune; President Trump will start his career with a nation he claims is in trouble.
  • Businessman Trump used debt to pyramid his holdings; President Trump claims the U.S. is already carrying too much debt.
  • Businessman Trump bankrupted several of his companies in order to survive; bankruptcy is not an option in any U.S. survival plan.
  • Businessman Trump obtained a brand name and recognition to succeed and survive; there are no brands in the international scene.
  • Businessman Trump used tax dodge schemes to maintain his fortune; try that for all America and the U.S. government will go broke.

Stability demands leadership by a stable and non-compulsive leader who does not alienate, does not create enemies, who can compromise, does not permit revenge to inhibit thoughtful action, and is trustful. President elect Trump does not exhibit any of those qualities.

Disturb a sensitive system and chaos will occur.

december, 2016

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